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Primary voter turnout is not a predictor of general election turnout

To The Daily Sun,

GOP candidate Trump constantly reminds anyone who will listen that he received the most votes of any presidential candidate in the history of primaries. He alludes to the fact that this is a requisite precursor for winning the presidency of the United States.

This constant haranguing and pompous tirade needs to be addressed. Trump keeps repeating the trite phrase that he's received the most GOP votes in a primary. He wants us to believe that this is something to crow about. We need to take a serious look to see if his proclamations are justified. Is he correct on this one? Is there unequivocal empirical data which would validate his claim? Keep in mind that he has a track record of being inconsistent. We know that he has a serious habit of not being able to tell the truth, repeating one lie after another.

According to research conducted by The American Presidency Project*, we have tracked presidential elections from 1828 to 2012, which occurs every four years. In doing this research we found very interesting facts to share with you.

The American Presidency Project has compared the 'Voting Age Population' (heretofore referred to as V.A.P.) to 'Voting Eligible Population' (referred to as V.E.P.) for national presidential elections. The years we will highlight are from 1972 onward with a bit of history for perspective. Some of the following points are direct quotes from the American Presidency Project:

1. Since 1972 there is an inclusion of citizens who have reached the age of 18 years old included in these statistics.

2. "V.A.P. includes those ineligible to vote such as felons. Because of this, V.A.P. figures are lower than if the V.E.P. (Voting Eligible Population) is used as the denominator."

3. "Primary turnout means nothing for the general election."

4. "Voter turnout is an indication of competitiveness of a primary contest; NOT of what will happen in the general election."

5. "History suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome."

6. "The party that had a higher turnout in the primary won the national popular vote three times and lost three times."

7. "Looking at the Electoral College outcome the party that had a higher turnout in the primary won four times."

**The last four election cycles show the following for the years major national elections took place. These percentages and turnout are as follows:

1. 2000 - 51.21 percent turnout: 105,405,100

2. 2004 - 56.70 percent turnout: 122,295,345

3. 2008 - 58.23 percent turnout: 131,313,820

4. 2012 - 54.87 percent turnout: 129,085,403

The highest recorded year for turnout was 1876 with an 81.8 percent turnout. The lowest recorded turnout year was 1924 with a 48.9 percent turnout.


*1824-1956-Lyn Ragsdale, Vital Statistics on the Presidency (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1998), 132-38

**1960-2012-Compiled by Gerhard Peters data obtained from the Federal Election Commission

**Article Primary Turnout Means Nothing for the General Election, by Harry Enten-2016

Bernadette Loesch


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Jeanie Forrester is a woman of upstanding character and integrity

To The Daily Sun,

As a veteran (a retired Marine Corps captain), I wholeheartedly support and endorse Jeanie Forrester for governor of New Hampshire. I am confident that she will support veterans and veterans' services.

I know Jeanie personally, and she is a woman of upstanding character and integrity who will do right by the citizens of this great state.

David A. Kutcher


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